Exit polls in 5 states: Kejriwal's Delhi model likely to get public approval in Punjab, Modi-Yogi double engine hit in UP
Exit poll decisions for 5 state assembly elections have begun. First of all, let's talk about Uttar Pradesh, where the pair of Yogi and Modi are getting hit again. In this state, the BJP seems to be getting a clear majority in the exit polls of Sapiens Research. According to which BJP can get 212 seats. Now let's talk about Punjab, the exit poll decisions here show that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) can get a clear majority. According to Axis My India-Aajtak survey, Aam Aadmi Party is getting 83 seats. The AAP is also emerging as the largest party in the Sea Water-ABP survey. Bhaskar has also conducted an exit poll in Punjab. According to which no one is seeing a clear majority in Punjab.
See exit poll results in graphic
Exit polls in graphi
Exit polls for UP Assembly elections have started coming. So far more than 6 exit polls have been held. Everyone is saying that Yogi government will come again in UP. In the exit polls, the BJP is likely to win 262 out of 212 seats. The SP is likely to get 116 to 161 seats. Take a look at the possibilities of exit polls.
Sepians: BJP-212, SP-161, BSP-15, Congress-9 and others-6 seats are estimated.
News-18P Mark: BJP-240, SP-S140, BSP-17, Congress-4 and others-2 seats are estimated to get.
News-18 Matrix Poll: BJP-262 to 277, SP-119 to 134, BSP-7 to 15, Congress-3 to 8 seats
News-18 Polstrate: BJP - 211 to 225, SP - 116 to 160, BSP - 14 to 24, Congress - 4 to 6 seats
TV-9 India: BJP - 211 to 224, SP - 146 to 160, BSP - 14 to 24, others - 4 to 6 seats
Jan Ki Baat of India News: BJP-222-260, SP-135 to 165, BSP-4 to 9, Congress-1 to 3 seats
Times Now veto- BJP 225 SP 151 BSP 14 Congress 9 Other 4
Republic - Matrize - BJP 262-277, SP 119-134, BSP 7-15, Congress 3-8
Republic P MarQ- BJP 240, SP 140, BSP 17, others 2.
Forecast of Uttarakhand
India Today - Axis My India - BJP 36-46, Congress 20-30, BSP 2-4, others 2-5.
Sea Water- BJP 26-32, Congress 32-38, AAP 0-2, Others 3-7.
Today's Chanakya - BJP 43, Congress 24, others-3.
Jan Ki Baat- BJP 32-41, Congress 27-35, BSP 0-1, Others 0-3.
Veto- BJP 37, Congress 31, AAP 1, others 1.
Estimation of Punjab
India Today - Axis My India - Congress 19-31, BJP 1-4, AAP 76-90, SAD + 7-11, Others 0-2.
Sea Water- Congress 22-28, BJP 7-13, AAP 51-61, SAD + 20-26.
Today's Chanakya- Congress-10, BJP 1, AAP 100, SAD + 6, others 0
Jan Ki Baat- 18-31, BJP 3-7, AAP 60-84, SAD + 12-19, others.
Veto- Congress 22, BJP 5, AAP 70, SAD + 19, others 1.
TV9 India Year- AAP 51-61, Congress 24-29, Akali Dal 22-26 BJP- 1-6.
Republic-P MarQ: AAP 62-70, Congress 23-31, Akali Dal 16-24, BJP 1-3.
News X: AAP 56-61, Congress 24-29, Akali Dal 22-26, BJP 1-6.
India News Jan Ki Baat: AAP 60-84, Congress 18-31, Akali Dal 12-19, BJP 3-7.
Times Now: AAP 70, Congress 22, Akali Dal 19, BJP 5.
Hung Assembly in Goa, Congress can win in Uttarakhand
According to a survey conducted by Axis My India-Aajtak and Design Box-G News in Goa, neither party seems to be getting a clear majority. Congress, on the other hand, is just 1 seat away from a majority, according to Sea Water-ABP. While according to Design Box-G News, it seems to be getting a clear majority. As far as Manipur is concerned, the BJP seems to be succeeding in retaining its power here.
Guess the Goa
India Today - Axis My India - BJP 14-18, Congress 15-20, MGP 2-5, Others 0-4.
Sea Water - BJP 13-17, Congress 12-16, TMC5-9, others 0-2.
Jan Ki Baat-BJP 13-19, Congress 14-19, MGP 1-2, AAP 3-5, others 1-3.
Veto- BJP 14, Congress 16, AAP 4, others 6.
Manipur forecast
India Today - Axis My India - Congress 4-8, BJP 33-34, NPP 4-8
Others - 6-15.
Jan Ki Chanakya- Congress 10-14, BJP 23-28, NPP 7-8, NPF 5-8
ABP Sea Water - BJP 23-27 Congress 12-16 NPF 03-07, NPP 10-14 Others 02-06.
According to the Bhaskar exit poll, no political party seems to have reached a majority in the Punjab Assembly elections this time. This time Aam Aadmi Party can be a big party here. But any party needs 59 seats to form a majority government.
So far 4 exit polls may come up. Accordingly, power may change in Punjab and Uttarakhand. AAP is likely to form the government in Punjab and Congress in Uttarakhand. In another poll, the BJP government in Manipur is likely to remain unchanged. Congress appears to be the largest party in Goa exit polls. But that is far from the majority figure.
UP's Poll of Polls: Yogi government will come to UP in two exit polls
The BJP is returning to power in the exit polls of Sapiens Research. The BJP is projected to get 207 to 217 seats here. The Samajwadi Party is coming in second with 161 seats. BJP is also coming back to power in two other exit polls.
Bhaskar has conducted an exit poll in the Punjab Assembly elections. According to this poll, no political party seems to have reached a majority in the Punjab Assembly elections. This time Aam Aadmi Party can be a big party here. But any party needs 59 seats to form a majority government.
Completely failed in Bihar and Haryana, West Bengal's claim is false
The West Bengal election was the talk of the country during the Koro epidemic. The BJP challenged Mamata with full force. Even in most exit polls, the BJP claimed 100 seats, but when the results came out, the BJP got only 77 seats. Mamata Banerjee defeated TMC by 211 seats to form a majority government. Similarly, exit polls in Haryana and Bihar also failed.
37 big exit polls in 20 years, 90% proved wrong
By 2019, there were 37 major exit polls, but 90% of them turned out to be false. In the 1999 elections, most of the exit polls showed a landslide victory for the NDA. He gave 315 seats to the NDA. The NDA won 296 seats after the results.
Exit polls in 2004 failed miserably. Exit polls claim Congress will not return. Everyone showed that the BJP had a majority, but that did not happen. The NDA could not get even 200 seats. The Congress then formed a government at the Center with the SP and BSP.
In 2009, the agencies had projected the UPA to get 199 seats and the NDA 197 seats, but the UPA got 262 seats. The NDA got only 159 seats.
Exit polls in 2014 show the NDA has a majority. One agency estimated the BJP at 291 and the NDA at 340 seats. The results were very close to the estimate. The BJP won 282 seats and the NDA 336 seats.
If we talk about the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the average number of seats won by the NDA in 10 exit polls was 304, which means that the NDA was expected to regain power, but even here there were some scams in the counting of seats. In the results, only BJP got 304 seats instead of NDA. The NDA accounted for 351 seats.
Bhaskar's exit poll proved to be the most accurate during the Bihar Assembly elections. Bhaskar had projected the NDA to get 120 to 127 seats. The NDA got 125 seats in the results, while exit polls in most of the channels projected a grand coalition government.
Exit poll history
Exit polls in India were designed by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in 1960, although the first poll survey was conducted in the media in the 1980s. At that time, journalist Pranab Roy tried to know the decision of the voters. He was accompanied by election analyst David Butler. Doordarshan launched Exit Poll in 1996 with CSDS. In the 1998 elections, most of the channels conducted exit polls. Section 126 of the RP Act, 1951 does not allow exit polls to be declared before the polls. Exit polls can be shown only after the last day of voting.
What is an exit poll and how many are true?
An exit poll is a survey conducted by interviewing voters who have left the polling booth to cast their vote. There are many questions and attempts to find out who the voter has voted for. Thousands of such interview statistics are collected and analyzed to estimate the percentage of votes and seats. Sometimes these assumptions prove to be accurate and sometimes even false.
Renowned journalist Pranay Roy wrote in his book The Verdict that a total of 833 surveys have been conducted in the country since 1980. It includes both opinion polls and exit polls. The survey proves 75 percent of the claims to be true. The average number of seats in an exit poll is 23 percent.
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